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Learn how to detect corporate sleight of hand―and gain the upper hand with smart investingCompanies are under more pressure than ever to “beat by a penny,” but you don’t need to be a forensic accountant to uncover where the spin ends and the truth begins. With the help of a powerhouse team of authors, you can avoid losing a chunk of your portfolio when the next overhyped growth stock fails by knowing What’s Behind the Numbers? Investing experts John Del Vecchio and Tom Jacobs mix a potent combination of earnings quality analysis, long-side investing, and short-side portfolio risk management to help you create a long-short portfolio with less volatility and greater returns, while avoiding landmine stocks that will blow a hole in your financial security.First, the authors explain the practical side of financial analysis. They demystify widely held assumptions about stock performance, expected returns, earnings quality, and short sellers. Then they comb the financial statements to find the places where companies hide poor earnings quality. Finally, they provide the value and special situations investing to pair with the short-side thinking and offer a tactical manual for applying what you’ve learned in the technical, day-to-day world of portfolio management.Armed with this wealth-saving guide, you can confidently trade based on clear data―not the aggressive accounting tactics companies use to make their numbers look better than they are. Better still, it helps you start protecting yourself right away with:Rules for finding companies playing with―rather than by―the numbers Repeatable methods for uncovering what companies don’t tell you about their numbers Multistep approach to deciding when to sell a stock and when to short sell it Reliable formulas for determining when a stock will get hit The next time a company goes south, you can be the successful investor who knew What’s Behind the Numbers?Praise for What's Behind the Numbers?“At Crazy Eddie, we succeeded in perpetrating our financial fraud for many years because most Wall Street analysts and investors took for granted the integrity of our reported numbers. What’s Behind the Numbers? teaches investors to critically look under the surface and spot red flags that could help them avoid potential losses from fraudulent companies like Crazy Eddie.”―Sam E. Antar, former Crazy Eddie CFO and convicted felon“I know of no other book that better teaches the reader how to determine earnings quality at a company, so you can avoid large losses on stocks you would otherwise own, and score profits by going short. Not only that, this book teaches you how to grow wealth with small-cap stocks in a way that would make value deity Ben Graham proud. . . . Essential for any investor.”―Jeff Fischer, Portfolio Manager, Motley Fool Pro and Motley Fool Options“Under [Del Vecchio and Jacobs’s] tutelage, forensic accounting is reduced to Math 101. We learn how to employ the metrics they use to expose fi nancial chicanery in companies, to unearth the best short sales, and to protect ourselves from owning those stocks most likely to blow up and wreak havoc on your portfolio. Read What’s Behind the Numbers? so you can keep your portfolio clear of ticking stock bombs.―Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist, Magnet Æ Fund, and Editor-in-Chief, Stock & Commodity Trader’s Almanacs“Wow! A must-read for anyone who thinks they know how to make money in the stock markets! Del Vecchio and Jacobs forced me to confront the stark reality of What’s Behind the Numbers? It isn’t pretty. . . . One of the best books on investing I have read in years.”―Tom Meredith, former Chief Financial Officer of Dell Inc., venture capitalist“This work will be a sought-after reference book among investment managers and analysts for years to come.”―Janet J. Mangano, CFA Institute’s Financial Analysts Journal
When a friend suggested I read “What’s Behind the Numbers” I quietly made a point to avoid it all costs. I love thinking and philosophizing about markets, but a book about numbers is the last way I’d like to approach the subject, not to mention about the most sleep inducing.Fortunately, “What’s Behind the Numbers” is as good as it is mis-titled. This is not a technical trading book and it's not even that esoteric. It's certainly not dry. Who knows what makes a book sell, but more accurate titles might have been “How To Analyze the Way Others Want You To Think” or “What You Want To Believe Versus What’s True”. The title, "What's Behind the Numbers" gave me a misguided first impression.This book would be a worthy introduction to how stock markets really work for those of you interested on an intellectual level. For those reading the book as a learning tool for money management (probably most of the audience) I’d say “What’s Behind the Numbers” offers as good an explanation to value investing in the old school Buffet way as you’re going to get. Don’t “blow up” by buying overpriced and overhyped stocks and your returns will take care of themselves. When a company is trying hide its true status like the Great and Powerful Oz with all his pageantry, that’s the time to pull the curtain back and look for a possible short. Value investing is by no means the only way to manage your money in the stock market, but as the book rigorously defends in its early chapters, this strategy has proven to be among the most solid through the years.Yes, the book does look at and teach numbers - after all, numbers are the tool for measuring the market, not just for technical traders but for old school fundamentals traders too. But the insight of “What’s Behind the Numbers” is that it shows not just what accounting numbers mean on their face (though this is important), but that these numbers are inseparable from the motivations and propaganda techniques of the companies who generate them. How valuable is a projected EPS for four years in the future? And why would such an estimate even be employed. Why would a company process and account tomorrow’s sales today? Yes, sales numbers are very important but so are the numbers of things not sold - otherwise known as inventory. When it comes to the stock market lying is not allowed. But, as “What’s Behind the Numbers” points out, kinda sorta lying is.From an almost philosophical standpoint I greatly appreciate how thoroughly and unflinchingly the book acknowledges market risk. As an example, you will frequently hear about a fund’s amazing track record or its alluring return since inception. But, this statistic obfuscates the enormous fluctuations a fund may journey through to get to that number. And probably more importantly, certainly more humanly, the book reminds you of the toll of stress and fear that accompanies these fluctuations and its inevitable result - you will take your money out of the fund. (The book cites the CGM Focus Fund, run by Ken Heebner and, if my memory serves, almost nobody stayed in that fund from its inception to last year when “What’s Behind the Numbers” was published. The fund showed great numbers but it was more suited to robots than humans.)Another water cooler statistic the book cites that frequently gets our blood flowing but can easily lead to heartbreak upon personal application is the S&P itself (or any major index for that matter). A huge increase in the S&P over a course of years sounds very tempting indeed, but this gain in the S&P far from guarantees that the stock you would have bought would have gone up in that time (some statistics say it probably would not have), that you wouldn’t have sold early to realize a profit, or that you wouldn’t have shrewdly played the contrarian and shorted when prices got too high - only to seem them get higher.Value investing is a market strategy that effectively measures and deals with risk. That’s sounds simple enough, but there are several steps beyond this that I was happy to see addressed in “What’s Behind the Numbers”.First, how are these numbers really generated? What laws, what accounting techniques, which market forces all set the parameters for what the numbers can amount to. And second, what do the people behind the numbers (and, again, the numbers are the alleged measurement of risk) really want you to believe ? (Hint: it’s not the long term. And frequently it’s not even the truth).If all of this seems esoteric than perhaps you will appreciate the book’s title, “What’s Behind the Numbers” a bit more than I do. However, for myself, that’s just the point. I consider the manipulation of believe to be such an elemental aspect of all markets that I see this book as covering essential and basic territory! The fact that this territory is left out of many market “How To” books is to their detriment. “What’s Behind the Numbers” should be among your first market reeds. This is both a basic and advanced book, but my enthusiasm for it comes from the fact that it is an insightful and clear book - not just about numbers, but about how and why people use numbers to influence our market choices.